Open AccessImplementation of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict total electron content from GPS satellite receiver in Bandung
Author(s) -
Marifatul Nur Yuniati,
Agus Sugandha
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/746/1/012036
Subject(s) - tec , total electron content , autoregressive integrated moving average , autoregressive model , moving average , satellite , ionosphere , environmental science , meteorology , global positioning system , mathematics , statistics , geography , computer science , time series , physics , telecommunications , astronomy
Total electron content (TEC) or free-electron content that is in the ionosphere layer can disrupt telecommunication and navigation systems. This study discusses forecasting the daily average value of total electron content (TEC) during March 2019. The method used in this forecast is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the Box-Jenkins approach. The research results show that the best ARIMA model is ARIMA (1,1,1)with an MSE 2.453. The results showed that the daily average predicted TEC value increased every day and the maximum TEC value occurred in the 86 th period (86 th day) which was 18.4991 TECU (1 TECU =10 16 electrons / m 2 ).