Open AccessPredicting Grid Facility Accidents
Author(s) -
М. Кузнецова,
S. Zaripova
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/720/1/012044
Subject(s) - accident (philosophy) , maxima and minima , grid , transmission (telecommunications) , key (lock) , environmental science , computer science , geography , mathematics , telecommunications , computer security , mathematical analysis , epistemology , geodesy , philosophy
Open-source statistics on accidents at transmission and generation facilities in Russia for 2014-2018 has been analyzed to identify key accident causes. This analysis established a correlation between accident rates and staff-involving incident rates. The authors were thus able to predictively model accidents, including those at Russian transmission and generation facilities. Accident forecasting is based on trend/cycle models that account for yearly load maxima and minima.