Open AccessThe influence of environmental factors on the intensity of typhoon Mirinae in the South China Sea and its forecast analysis
Author(s) -
Ying Huang,
Xiaoyan Huang,
Huasheng Zhao,
Jian Jin
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/658/1/012019
Subject(s) - typhoon , intensity (physics) , environmental science , meteorology , computer science , feature selection , climatology , artificial intelligence , geography , geology , physics , quantum mechanics
The rapidly intensifying typhoon Mirinae (1603) originated in the South China Sea (SCS) has been selected to analyze the high and low level circulations, vertical wind shear (VWS) and ocean conditions in and around the SCS when Mirinae was strengthening. Further, the fuzzy neural network (FNN) ensemble model has been developed for 24-hour intensity prediction based on climatology and persistence factors and dynamic factors of numerical prediction products as potential predictors. The underlying conditions were favorable for Mirinae, however, it did not be intensified to a strong typhoon because of the weak high and low level circulations and strong VWS. For the FNN ensemble prediction model input, predictors were selected by employing both a novel stepwise variable selection algorithm based on the k-nearest mutual information estimation and Laplacian Eigenmaps of manifold learning, and then the main prediction information hidden in high dimensional data set was extracted with low-dimensional structure. Results show that, the predictions of the new model are stable and reliable, and the forecast accuracy is high, providing a new forecasting tool and modeling method for the objective forecast of typhoon intensity.