Open AccessSecond-order Markov chain models of rainfall in Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria
Author(s) -
Samuel Ogunjo,
I. A. Fuwape,
S. S. Oluyamo,
Babatunde Rabiu
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/655/1/012001
Subject(s) - markov chain , geography , markov model , variation (astronomy) , order (exchange) , series (stratigraphy) , climatology , environmental science , statistics , mathematics , economics , biology , physics , astrophysics , geology , paleontology , finance
Understanding the dynamics of rainfall is important for maximizing the agricultural potential, environmental planning, as well as policy development. In this study, a two-state second-order Markov chain model was developed for the annual and daily occurrence of different rainfall sequences in Ibadan, southwestern Nigeria. The annual variation was adapted to a sine series model. The model was able to account for more than 30% of the observed variation. Markov chain approach to modelling rainfall in tropical region is unique because it considers the “memory” – previous rainfall events, which is lacking in other methods. The daily occurrences showed patterns consistent with tropical regions. Results from this study is significant for economic, health and environmental planning in the location.