Management tool of urban sustainable development: establishment of an economy-resources-environment system dynamics model

Economy-Resources-Environment (ERE) system is considered as a complex component for sustaining the urban development. System dynamics (SD) is a method to explain the behavior of complex component. According to the conceptual framework of urban sustainable development, this paper takes Chongqing of China as case study to develop an ERE-SD model for simulating the feedback process of economic development with resource restriction and environmental degradation. Firstly, conceptual framework and structure of ERE-SD model is established, and model test is carried out. Secondly, five scenarios, named natural growth, resource restriction, environment protection, smart development and economy, are selected to forecast the future results. Finally, the optimization scenario is selected for improving urban sustainable development. The results illustrate that the GDP level in five scenarios decreases in the following sequence: economy -, economy +, smart development, environment protection, resource restriction, economy -, natural growth; the net GDP level in five scenarios decreases in the following sequence: economy +, resource restriction, smart development, environment protection, economy -, natural growth. The adjustment of the economic development path is necessary to access sustainable development in Chongqing.