Open AccessSpatial modeling for prediction agricultural land-use change in Jampang Kulon, Sukabumi Regency
Author(s) -
A. Difanty,
Supriatna Supriatna
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/623/1/012084
Subject(s) - urbanization , cellular automaton , markov chain , agricultural land , agriculture , geography , land use , population , land cover , agricultural economics , computer science , mathematics , statistics , economic growth , civil engineering , algorithm , economics , engineering , demography , archaeology , sociology
Indonesia is a developing country with high population growth. In terms of urbanization, a large amount of agricultural land has been transformed into an urban area that can directly lead to LULC (land use-land cover) changes. Understanding and accessing LULC changes mainly used simulation models like the Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. This model effectively combines the advantages of long-term predictions and can simulate land-use growth. This study aims to analyze and predict the future scenarios of LULC (2010-2031) in the Jampang Kulon Sub District using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model by considering the physical and socio-economic drivers of LULC dynamics. The study revealed that agricultural land decreased by 17% from 2020 to 2031. Meanwhile, the neighborhood area will be increased by 41% from 2020 to 2031. The growth of neighborhood areas with a crowded pattern is in the northern and center parts of the Jampang Kulon Sub District. The CA-Markov model used in predicting LULC produced a kappa value of 0,87. This study can provide suggestions and a basis for urban development planning in Jampang Kulon Sub District Sukabumi Regency.