Open AccessFirst World Aging: Scenario Forecasts of Dependency Ratios
Author(s) -
Julia Zinkina,
Sergey Shulgin,
Alexander E. Andreev
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/578/1/012062
Subject(s) - openness to experience , dependency ratio , human capital , dependency (uml) , globalization , population ageing , economics , population , demographic economics , economic geography , development economics , econometrics , economic growth , computer science , demography , psychology , sociology , market economy , social psychology , software engineering
Population aging in the first world and its expected consequences are actively discussed in the research community. Effects of aging can be seen in the age structures projected for various countries by UN DESA. However, their «medium» scenario most frequently used by researchers to understand the effects of aging is based on the national-level assumptions (their set being rather fixed and limited in number). In this paper we propose a different approach, where age structures and dependency ratios are projected based on global-level assumptions impacting the demographic dynamics of each particular country. As a first approximation, this approach gives us 4 scenarios of demographic dynamics associated with: 1) the growth of human capital (in particular, an increase in the level of education); 2) stagnation of human capital; 3) a decrease in global integration and migration flows; 4) increased globalization, increased openness of borders and migration flows.