Production and prices forecasting analysis of red chili (Capsicum annuum L.) in North Sumatera in 2028 | Zendy

Yuliana Jasmin | Zendy; S I Kesuma | Zendy; Rulianda Purnomo Wibowo | Zendy

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Production and prices forecasting analysis of red chili (Capsicum annuum L.) in North Sumatera in 2028

Author(s) -

Yuliana Jasmin,

S I Kesuma,

Rulianda Purnomo Wibowo

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

iop conference series earth and environmental science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179

H-Index - 26

eISSN - 1755-1307

pISSN - 1755-1315

DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/454/1/012011

Subject(s) - production (economics) , sowing , mathematics , quadratic equation , exponential function , statistics , trend analysis , economic analysis , econometrics , economics , agricultural economics , horticulture , biology , microeconomics , mathematical analysis , geometry

This study aims to find out the most compatible method specification used to forecast the production and prices of red chili and to analyse the results of the production and prices forecasting of red chili in North Sumatera in 2028. The analytical methods used are the linear trend analysis, quadratic trend analysis, and exponential trend analysis where the three method specifications will be tested with MSE and MAPE to see which one is the most compatible. The results indicated that quadratic trend analysis is the most compatible one and that both the production and the prices forecasting are having a negative trend. The decreasing of production is caused by the decreasing of red chili’s planting area while the decreasing of prices is caused by the decreasing of demand for red chili.

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