Open AccessStudy on Pollution Risk Index Based on ESI and Stochastic Simulation
Author(s) -
Rongchang Chen,
Chen Liu
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/371/3/032054
Subject(s) - index (typography) , pollution , computer science , environmental science , stochastic simulation , econometrics , risk analysis (engineering) , statistics , mathematics , business , world wide web , ecology , biology
A calculation method of the risk index of oil spill pollution is presented, and main factors are considered in the method, such as the shoreline environmental sensitivity index ESI , the environmental sensitivity index SI , the statistical probability of the pollution, and the minimum time to be polluted. After 600 stochastic simulations of oil spill trajectory and fates model, the calculation of the pollution probability is carried out for the probability of the pollution to each segment of the shoreline and the minimum time to be polluted. The ESI and SI indexes, which indicate the shoreline environmental sensitivity, are determined by satellite image analysis, field investigation, data investigation and so on. The calculation method can be applied to the risk assessment of the oil spill accident with environmental conditions not determined, and provide the basis for the emergency preparedness and planning for the oil spill accident. The method was applied in Jiaozhou Bay, and the changes of the risk index along the shoreline was analyzed.