Open AccessThe evaluation of drought indices: Standard Precipitation Index, Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index in Cilacap-Central Java
Author(s) -
Fandy Balbo,
Rindi Wulandari,
Muhammad Rio Nugraha,
A. Dwiandani,
Muhammad Ridho Syahputra,
Rusmawan Suwarman
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/303/1/012012
Subject(s) - precipitation , evapotranspiration , index (typography) , environmental science , climatology , agriculture , meteorology , geography , computer science , biology , ecology , archaeology , geology , world wide web
The Cilacap Regency-Central Java, is the largest agricultural area with a high level of drought vulnerability. This study aims to evaluate three indices in quantifying a drought condition in Cilacap Regency and its application in forecasting. The indices that were used in this study are Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The comparison between SPI and SPEI shows that there is no significant difference in terms of determining the drought severity. SPEI should be used when there is a temperature difference more than 2°C in 30 years. PDSI may provide more frequency of drought event and a good result in indicating the effects of drought on agricultural productivity. We used Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) to predict drought severity by SPI. The result of model prediction shows that there is no significant improvement in accuracy before and after statistical bias correction. The prediction can be done on three months (lead3) before initial planting.