Open AccessChanging properties of extreme flood in Xiliugou River Basin, China
Author(s) -
Suzhen Dang,
Manfei Yao,
Huijuan Yin,
Guotao Dong
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/295/4/042136
Subject(s) - flood myth , generalized extreme value distribution , generalized pareto distribution , return period , goodness of fit , extreme value theory , 100 year flood , distribution (mathematics) , environmental science , hydrology (agriculture) , distribution fitting , statistics , mathematics , probability distribution , geography , geology , geotechnical engineering , mathematical analysis , archaeology
Based on the annual maximum flood discharge sequence of the Longtouguai hydrological station in the Xiliugou River Basin from 1960 to 2015, the statistical probability characteristics of extreme flood discharge were analyzed by using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, generalized Pareto (GP) distribution, Pearson type III (P-III) distribution, general logistic (GLO), and Burr distribution. The parameters were estimated by the L-moments method, and the optimal distributions were selected by some of goodness-of-fit method. The results showed that the annual maximum flood discharge series decreased significantly with an abrupt change point around 2005. From the L-moments and goodness-of-fit test method, Burr distribution can better fit the annual maximum flood discharge before and after the abrupt change. Compared with the sequence before the change, the return period becomes larger and the probability of severe flood is smaller. The designed maximum flood peak discharge for the same return period of the entire sequence is smaller than that of the sequence before the change.