Open AccessNon-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales
Author(s) -
Wan Ting Katty Huang,
Isobel Braithwaite,
Andrew CharltonPerez,
Christophe Sarran,
Ting Sun
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
environmental research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.37
H-Index - 124
ISSN - 1748-9326
DOI - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5
Subject(s) - global warming , environmental science , climate change , mean radiant temperature , climatology , relative risk , ecology , mathematics , biology , statistics , confidence interval , geology
Climate change is expected to lead to changes in seasonal temperature-related mortality. However, this impact on health risk does not necessarily scale linearly with increasing temperature. By examining changes in risk relative to degrees of global warming, we show that there is a delayed emergence of the increase in summer mean mortality risk in England and Wales. Due to the relatively mild summer mean temperatures under the current climate and the non-linearity of the exposure–response relationships, minimal changes in summer mean risk are expected at lower levels of warming and an escalation in risk is projected beyond 2.5 °C of global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. In contrast, a 42% increase in mortality risk during summer heat extremes is already expected by 2 °C global warming. Winter attributable mortalities, on the other hand, are projected to decrease largely linearly with global warming in England and Wales.