Open AccessTropical cloud-radiative changes contribute to robust climate change-induced jet exit strengthening over Europe during boreal winter
Author(s) -
Nicole Albern,
Aiko Voigt,
Joaquim G. Pinto
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
environmental research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.37
H-Index - 124
ISSN - 1748-9326
DOI - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac13f0
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , climate model , climate change , boreal , jet stream , radiative transfer , african easterly jet , atmosphere (unit) , troposphere , atmospheric sciences , geology , jet (fluid) , geography , tropical wave , tropical cyclone , meteorology , oceanography , physics , quantum mechanics , thermodynamics , paleontology
The North Atlantic jet stream is projected to extend eastward towards Europe in boreal winter in response to climate change. We show that this response is robust across a hierarchy of climate models and climate change scenarios. We further show that cloud-radiative changes contribute robustly to the eastward extension of the jet stream in three atmosphere models, but lead to model uncertainties in the jet stream response over the North Atlantic. The magnitude of the cloud contribution depends on the model, consistent with differences in the magnitude of changes in upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating. We further study the role of regional cloud changes in one of the three atmosphere models, i.e. the ICON model. Tropical cloud-radiative changes dominate the cloud impact on the eastward extension of the jet stream in ICON. Cloud-radiative changes over the Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific, and eastern tropical Pacific contribute to this response, while tropical Atlantic cloud changes have a minor impact. Our results highlight the importance of upper-tropospheric tropical clouds for the regional circulation response to climate change over the North Atlantic-European region and uncertainty therein.