Long term impacts of transitions in charcoal production systems in tropical biomes

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions through transitions to biomass-based renewable energy may result in higher land needs, affecting ecosystem services and livelihoods. Charcoal is a biomass-based renewable energy that provides energy for hundreds of millions of households worldwide and generates income for 40 million people. However, it currently causes up to 7% of the global deforestation rate. In the absence of affordable alternative fuels, it is necessary to identify conditions that foster sustainable charcoal production. In this study, we (a) develop a stylized model that simulates feedbacks between forest biomass and charcoal production, and (b) use the model to examine the effects of interventions that foster sustainable charcoal systems through transitions to communal management or private systems, increases in carbonization efficiency and charcoal demand reductions. Our model simulations suggest that at low demand, a transition is unnecessary. At intermediate to high demands, interventions that increase carbonization efficiency and/or reduce demand should be combined with transitions to communal management (at intermediate forest biomass levels) or private systems (at low forest biomass levels) to ensure long-term sustainability of charcoal systems and avoid collapse within 100 years. These results highlight multiple pathways for sustainable charcoal production systems tailored to meet supply and demand. All pathways are feasible across tropical biomes and could foster the simultaneous continuation of forests and charcoal production in the near future.