Open AccessIncreasing agricultural risk to hydro-climatic extremes in India
Author(s) -
Tarul Sharma,
Vittal Hari,
Subhankar Karmakar,
Subimal Ghosh
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
environmental research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.37
H-Index - 124
ISSN - 1748-9326
DOI - 10.1088/1748-9326/ab63e1
Subject(s) - food security , agriculture , climate change , environmental science , precipitation , adaptive capacity , climate extremes , adaptation (eye) , risk assessment , natural resource economics , climatology , environmental resource management , water resource management , geography , ecology , meteorology , economics , biology , management , archaeology , neuroscience , geology
Indian agriculture is globally well-documented to reflect the impacts of changing climate significantly. However, climate adaptation efforts are often hindered due to the inadequate assessment of coupled human-environment interactions. In this study, we propose a novel unified country-level framework to quantify the decadal agricultural risks derived from multiple hydro-meteorological exposures and adaptive consequences. We identify, for the first time, that rice and wheat risks have increased in the recent decade, with wheat at a twofold higher magnitude than rice. Increasing crops risk is found to be predominantly driven by the decreasing number of cultivators; in particular, the wheat risk is also attributed to increasing minimum temperatures during the crop growing season. We provide convincing evidence indicating that the hydro-climatic hazards related to precipitation extremes and droughts are specifically alarming the crops risk as compared to temperature extremes. These observation-based results highlight the sensitivity of India’s agriculture and the risk associated with multiple agro-ecological and climatic components. We recommend these findings to facilitate the informed planning of adaptive measures and ensure sustainable food security of the nation.