Open AccessHow likely is an El Niño to break the global mean surface temperature record during the 21st century?
Author(s) -
Chia Wei Hsu,
Jingxue Yin
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
environmental research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.37
H-Index - 124
ISSN - 1748-9326
DOI - 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3b82
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , environmental science , climate simulation , climate model , climatology , atmospheric sciences , climate change , geology , oceanography
The likelihood of an El Niño breaking the annual global mean surface temperature (GMST) record during the 21st century is derived from 38 climate models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find that, under a low emission scenario, one out of three El Niño events break the GMST record. The probability significantly increases to four out of five in a high emission scenario. About half of strong El Niños, but only one-fifth of weak El Niños, can set new GMST records in a low emission scenario. By contrast, even weak El Niños break the GMST record more regularly (68 ± 8% chance) in a high emission scenario. Both a stronger El Niño and a higher emission scenario induce a higher record-breaking GMST with a magnitude range from 0.03°C to 0.21°C above the previous record. El Niño accounts for more than half of record-breaking GMST occurrences in all emission scenarios. A comparison between CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 suggests that the analyses are not affected by model generations.