Open AccessAn update on the thermosteric sea level rise commitment to global warming
Author(s) -
Magnus Hieronymus
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
environmental research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.37
H-Index - 124
ISSN - 1748-9326
DOI - 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c31
Subject(s) - climate sensitivity , sea level , environmental science , sea level rise , climatology , global warming , sea surface temperature , effects of global warming on oceans , climate model , climate change , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , geology
The equilibrium thermosteric sea level rise caused by global warming is evaluated in several coupled climate models. The thermosteric sea level rise is found to be well approximated as a linear function of the mean ocean temperature increase in the models. However, the mean ocean temperature increase as a function of the mean surface temperature increase differs between the models. Our models can be divided into two branches; models with an Atlantic meridional overturning circulation that increases with warming have large mean ocean temperature increases and vice versa. These two different branches give estimates of the equilibrium thermosteric sea level rise per degree of surface warming that are respectively 98% and 21% larger than the estimate given in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Our estimates of the equilibrium thermosteric sea level rise are also used to infer an equilibrium sea level sensitivity, a parameter akin to the often used equilibrium climate sensitivity metric.