Open AccessRelationship of Rainfall and IOD Phenomena by using Spectral Analysis and SARIMA
Author(s) -
Miftahuddin,
Nuwairy El Furqany,
Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1940/1/012005
Subject(s) - climatology , indian ocean dipole , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , geography , geology , el niño southern oscillation
Rainfall is very essential for life and it has complexity process. To obtain the relationship between rainfall in time-spatial of Aceh region and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon, we used spectral-analysis and SARIMA model. Identification results show that the rainfall data monthly in Aceh Barat (ABR), Aceh Besar (ABS), Sabang (S) and Aceh Utara (AU) has a similar pattern. However, due to the sensitivity of the occurrence of the IOD, the ABR region has higher rainfall compared to ABS, S and AU regions. Rainfall in all regions observation has a peak time, namely at the end of the year (October-November-December). It has the negative peak of the IOD event occurred in September-2016 while the positive peak point occurred in October-2019. Overall, the normal phase occurred from January to April-2019. In peak season in ABR and ABS, the rainfall intensity increased. The results showed that the rainfall model in ABR and S has normal distribution, whereas in ABS and AU has nonnormal distribution. Furthermore, the rainfall model in ABR with SARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1) 6 is the best model compared to model of three other regions with high accuracy forecasting.