Open AccessProbabilistic population projections for provincial levels in Indonesia
Author(s) -
Budi Setiawan,
Sukamdi,
Umi Listyaningsih
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1863/1/012011
Subject(s) - projection (relational algebra) , projections of population growth , population , population projection , probabilistic logic , distribution (mathematics) , statistics , indonesian , geography , econometrics , mathematics , population growth , demography , algorithm , sociology , mathematical analysis , linguistics , philosophy
This research aims to produce a probabilistic population projection for the provincial level in Indonesia. The base population uses the base population used by Bappenas, BPS, and UNFPA Indonesia in compiling the 2015-2045 Indonesian official population projection. One thousand trajectories of future E0 values are projected using JPP with Asian countries as the prior distribution, while 1,000 trajectories of future TFR values are projected using BHM-based projections with Asian countries as the prior distribution. Meanwhile, the number and pattern of net internal migration are assumed to be constant during the projection period. The calculation process uses the bayesPop package in R software. The projection results show that the total population of the official projection is located at the predicted interval of the Bayesian population projection, except for the Kepulauan Riau.