Open AccessUsing the Markov chain to predict the outcome of an election in a given situation
Author(s) -
Yajie Wan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1848/1/012051
Subject(s) - markov chain , stochastic matrix , outcome (game theory) , computer science , markov model , coding (social sciences) , markov process , econometrics , research object , politics , mathematics , mathematical economics , statistics , machine learning , political science , sociology , law , regional science
This paper used Markov Chain, a mathematical model that is often utilized in predicting, to forecast the result of the election process of a person in a specific circumstance. In the way of modeling, starting from the tree diagram to the model of Markov Chain and related transition matrix, this paper aimed at the election result, which relates the object of study, a specific candidate. The research data are collected from the prompt of the research question and the calculation of coding based on the transition matrix. The result is, when it is the 64 th year of that specific candidate running for the reelection campaign, he will be likely to retire from politics.