Open AccessModeling and forecasting the parameters of a railroad transport system
Author(s) -
Oleg I. Rebrin,
Leonid Zakharov,
L A Derksen,
V. I. Eremenko
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1679/3/032018
Subject(s) - passenger transport , field (mathematics) , demand forecasting , mathematical model , computer science , operations research , econometrics , engineering , transport engineering , mathematics , statistics , pure mathematics
The article describes an algorithm for constructing a mathematical model to predict the demand for railway passenger transportation. The model based on the SARIMAX methodology, considering the influence of seasonality and external variables on demand. The average absolute error of prediction result of the created model with the calculated parameters is 8%. The created model can be used as a decision support system in the field of passenger transportation.