The Application of Geographical Analysis in Serial Crimes | Zendy

Xin Wang | Zendy; Xinshe Qi | Zendy; Guo Li | Zendy; GaoCuicui | Zendy; Na Wang | Zendy; Ruiping Huang | Zendy; Rong Liu | Zendy

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The Application of Geographical Analysis in Serial Crimes

Author(s) -

Xin Wang,

Xinshe Qi,

Guo Li,

GaoCuicui,

Na Wang,

Ruiping Huang,

Rong Liu

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

journal of physics conference series

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21

H-Index - 85

eISSN - 1742-6596

pISSN - 1742-6588

DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1616/1/012088

Subject(s) - attractiveness , series (stratigraphy) , bayes' theorem , bayesian probability , computer science , vulnerability (computing) , distribution (mathematics) , econometrics , criminology , artificial intelligence , mathematics , psychology , computer security , paleontology , mathematical analysis , psychoanalysis , biology

In this paper, we use bayes’ theorem to generate two mathematical models for a series of crimes. This series of crimes is a dynamic process, so we regard it as JTC model. In this model, there are some major factors, such as the individual’s vulnerability to crime, the attractiveness of the place of the crime and the utilization of the crime from the place of origin to the place of destination. We combine the bayesian theorem with the JTC model to obtain the mathematical model of geographical distribution. We made full use of the model to predict the location of the next perpetrator in the series.

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