Open AccessResearch on Prediction of China’s Total Energy Production Based on MCMC Method
Author(s) -
Chunjiao Gao
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1549/4/042057
Subject(s) - markov chain monte carlo , bayesian probability , statistics , posterior probability , confidence interval , autoregressive integrated moving average , econometrics , distribution (mathematics) , credible interval , production (economics) , interval (graph theory) , computer science , data set , mathematics , time series , economics , mathematical analysis , macroeconomics , combinatorics
Based on the application of Bayesian method in parameter estimation and combined with posterior distribution, this paper proposes a reasonable prior distribution. This paper applies the total energy production of China for empirical analysis in the past 20 years. Firstly, the data are processed into stable data, and then the model is determined. Finally, the parameters of the model are estimated by MCMC method, and the posterior distribution diagram and 95% confidence interval of the parameters of ARIMA model are obtained.