Open AccessThe Comparison of Double Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourists Coming to North Sumatera
Author(s) -
Didi Febrian,
Said Iskandar Al Idrus,
Debora Agnes Jessica Nainggolan
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1462/1/012046
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , tourism , mathematics , statistics , moving average , double exponential function , order (exchange) , smoothing , exponential function , econometrics , geography , economics , finance , mathematical analysis , archaeology
In Mathematics, Forecasting is scientific. Forecasting uses statistical techniques to describe the future using previous data. Based on North Sumatra BPS data, the number of foreign tourists coming to North Sumatra fluctuates. Therefore, forecasting the number of foreign tourism needs to be done so that tourism actors can prepare themselves. The purpose of this study is to compare time series forecasting methods, namely Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Then the number of tourists is predicted using the best method, the method with the smallest MAPE. The research data in the form of secondary data obtained from BPS as many as 108 data, from January 2010 to December 2018. The calculation process uses Ms. Excel. The results showed that the 12th time order on DMA had the smallest MAPE value, which was 14.12%. Whereas the DES Brown method with and DES Holt yielding MAPE values respectively 12.71% and 12.21%. Forecasting the number of foreign tourists coming to North Sumatra in 2019 using the DES Holt method.