Open AccessProbabilistic prediction of electric power extreme load
Author(s) -
Jianjie Xue,
Haiyun Wang,
Ling Wang,
Di Zhang,
Yan Zhai,
Yuxuan Zhang
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1449/1/012080
Subject(s) - grasp , extreme value theory , computer science , probabilistic forecasting , realization (probability) , probabilistic logic , reliability (semiconductor) , reliability engineering , range (aeronautics) , electrical load , process (computing) , power (physics) , statistics , artificial intelligence , engineering , mathematics , physics , quantum mechanics , programming language , aerospace engineering , operating system
For load forecasting, the difficulty lies in how to accurately grasp some key points in the process of load fluctuation, such as the highest load and the lowest load. It is advisable to call the forecast of daily maximum load and daily minimum load as “extreme load forecast”. On one hand, we can use the whole day load curve forecasting technology to directly get the forecasting results of extreme load; on the other hand, we need to study the special method of directly forecasting extreme load. At the same time, the conventional extreme load forecasting results are generally deterministic. Only a precise value is given, which cannot estimate the probability of the load value and determine the possible fluctuation range of the forecasting results, ignoring the probability characteristics of the forecasting results themselves. In fact, because of the advance of the prediction problem, the realization of the uncertainty prediction is more in line with the objective needs. According to the probability characteristics of the prediction results, it is helpful for the decision-makers to better grasp the objective laws of the research objects in the aspects of risk analysis and reliability evaluation, so as to achieve more reliable and scientific analysis and evaluation. Therefore, it is of great significance to introduce the idea of uncertainty analysis to realize the probability prediction of extreme load.