Open AccessA quantitative analysis pattern for regional risk conduction
Author(s) -
Jie Su,
Xinyue Zhang,
Ling Zhou,
Yue Yin
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1419/1/012032
Subject(s) - risk management , risk management tools , risk analysis (engineering) , risk assessment , seriousness , time consistency , actuarial science , conditional probability , factor analysis of information risk , business , econometrics , statistics , computer science , economics , risk management information systems , engineering , mathematics , computer security , political science , management information systems , information system , finance , electrical engineering , law
Risk conduction refers to a certain risk can lead to the spread of risk accidents, causing other risks through many ways. Conductivity is a basic characteristic of risk, especially when the research object is regional risk. Aiming at the conductive characteristics of regional risk in scenic spots, based on Bayesian rule and total probability formula, this paper explored a regional risk conduction pattern. Firstly, risk management system consists of risk carrier, risk incentive and risk performance. The consequences of one risk may also be the risk environment of another risk, so the correlation between risks can be established. Secondly, construct regional risk transmission network with three layers of variables. Starting with the specific risks, analyzing the possible risk consequences, judging whether these risk consequences will lead to secondary risks and calculating the conditional probability of secondary risks based on conditional probability and full probability formula. Last, according to the conduction probability between risks, the comprehensive severity of the consequences is calculated after considering risk transmission. The conduction probability between risks and seriousness of risk after considering conduction can be obtained through this model. It provides a quantitative analysis tool for regional risk management and is helpful in two aspects: providing monitoring focus before risk occurs, and cutting off conduction path to prevent further risk expansion when risk occurs.