Open AccessNew model averaging approach in predicting mortality rate of intensive care unit patients
Author(s) -
Siti Aisyah Mohd Padzil,
Khuneswari Gopal Pillay,
Mohd Saifullah Rusiman,
Rohayu Mohd Salleh
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1366/1/012123
Subject(s) - intensive care unit , mortality rate , saps ii , medicine , mechanical ventilation , statistics , prognostic model , intensive care , emergency medicine , intensive care medicine , mathematics , apache ii , overall survival
Model Averaging (MA) is one of the well-known statistical modelling approach to produce a fitted model in applied research. Even though it was proposed to overcome underestimation of parameter estimates issues in Model Selection (MS), the final best model of MA includes insignificant variables. The goal of this research is to propose an New Model Averaging (NMA) method which is based on MA approach with elimination of insignificant variables. Data of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) was studied to highlight the most influential factor of mortality rate. ICU is commonly associated with a high mortality rate due of its complexity of treatments. The guidelines of NMA method on ICU patient’s data were presented and the models obtain were compared using 10-Fold Cross-Validation. The results reveals that the performance of NMA is slightly better than MA. The most significant factors for mortality of ICU patients were concluded to be patient’s age, SAPS II score discharge and whether or not the patients use ventilation machine. In conclusion, the study showed that the elderly patients have a greater risk of mortality after discharge from the hospital and SAPS II score provide a good indication in predicting hospital mortality.