Location-based data driven model for real estate market value analysis based on energy performance certification

The market value of physical assets varies over time as a function of different factors. These factors are related, for instance, to the correct execution of construction works and installation of systems, the procedures for the operation of systems and equipment, the continuous implementation of maintenance operations and to the location and the perceived value. However, there is no clear evidence, in Italy, of how buildings’ market value is affected by the energy performance measured by the Energy Performance Certification (EPC), promoted thanks to the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive in order to drive the assets’ energy efficiency. The aim of the research is the definition of a methodology for the identification of the impact of the energy performance on the market value of the assets. An analysis of the market values of assets has been carried out based on a public database. On this basis, an investigation of homogeneous assets’ price areas has been performed. The results have been geolocated and further processed, which allowed to associate differences in the market values to the energy performance retrieved from the Certificazione Energetica degli EDifici (CENED) database (the Italian regional EPC database). The buildings included in the analysis are residential buildings distributed in the regional territory (Lombardy Region). The methodology has been tested at national level but is potentially scalable in different contexts. It has been developed and applied in two case studies, cities with different size and characteristics located in the northern Italy.