Open AccessForecasting of Maritime Traffic Accident based on Residual Error Unbiased Grey Forecast Model
Author(s) -
ShiGang Sun,
Yan Chen,
Jinsong Zhou,
Taoying Li
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of physics. conference series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1742-6596
pISSN - 1742-6588
DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1284/1/012048
Subject(s) - residual , reliability (semiconductor) , statistics , traffic accident , computer science , mean squared prediction error , mathematics , algorithm , engineering , transport engineering , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics
In order to enhance the safety of maritime transportation and improve the accuracy of maritime traffic accident prediction, an unbiased grey forecast model based on residual error is applied to predict maritime traffic accident. Based on the historical data of maritime traffic accidents from 2008 to 2017, the traditional unbiased grey model prediction and residual error unbiased grey model prediction are carried out, and the fitting curves of actual value and predicted value of the two models are drawn. The results show that the prediction accuracy and fitting curve of residual error unbiased grey model are better than those of traditional unbiased grey model, which can truly reflect the development trend of comprehensive safety of maritime traffic, and the prediction results have certain reliability and practicability.