Postsmolt Growth and Thermal Regime Define the Marine Survival of Steelhead from the Keogh River, British Columbia

The population of anadromous steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Keogh River has been studied intensively, in part because of its pattern of declining recruitment, which is largely attributed to poor marine survival. Climate variability has changed the productivity of salmonid species in all regions of the North Pacific, with areas alternately shifting between periods of enhanced and depressed productivity. The mechanisms governing marine survival and adult recruitment are central to contemporary resource management concerns but are also of concern with regard to the long‐term prospects of managing biodiversity. We provide evidence that postsmolt growth contributes to the pattern of marine survival of Keogh River steelhead over the period corresponding to smolt years 1977–1999. Size at ocean entry did not appear to have sufficient contrast to significantly affect survival. However, assessment of scale growth suggested that the fish's initial growth at sea is not as important as the sustained growth conditions during summer and fall of the postsmolt year. The return rate of steelhead was negatively correlated with sea surface temperature in the ocean domains that were assumed to provide postsmolt nursery habitat, suggesting that growth is directly affected by warming conditions or that ocean warming affects the food web upon which steelhead depend. Steelhead appear to respond to changing climate and growth regimes in a manner similar to that of their North Atlantic analog, the Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar . Comparative data show that eastern basin Atlantic Salmon populations are negatively affected by a thermal regime of increasing temperature during the postsmolt year, suggesting a relationship between postsmolt growth and survival. Received August 14, 2013; accepted October 17, 2013