Relationship between Gulf Menhaden Recruitment and Mississippi River Flow: Model Development and Potential Application for Management

The Gulf menhaden Brevoortia patronus is one of the most abundant pelagic fishes in the northern coastal Gulf of Mexico (hereafter, “Gulf”) and is the principal forage for various commercial and sport fishes, sea birds, and marine mammals. Part of the life history of Gulf menhaden is spent on the continental shelf and part is spent within estuaries. Adults spawn near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and larvae aggregate within the river plume front. Larval Gulf menhaden transit the continental shelf and enter estuaries of the northern Gulf as juveniles. Govoni (1997) demonstrated an association between the discharge of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers and Gulf menhaden recruitment. In particular, he found an inverse association between Mississippi River discharge and estimated recruitment of half‐year‐old fish based on recruitment data from Vaughan et al. (1996). Vaughan et al. (2000) updated this relationship with a regression analysis. Here, we revisit the relationship with additional years of data through 2004. The inverse relationship continues to hold. In addition, we reframed this relationship to produce a 1‐year‐ahead prediction model for forecasting recruitment to age 1 from Mississippi River discharge; this model can be used in proactive fishery management. Finally, we revisited the stock assessment model of Vaughan et al. (2007) and demonstrated an improvement in model performance when information on annual river discharge was incorporated. Received August 4, 2010; accepted March 10, 2011