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Corrélation et Causalité entre la Pêche et la Gestion des Bassins‐versants
Author(s) -
Hilborn Ray
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
fisheries
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.725
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1548-8446
pISSN - 0363-2415
DOI - 10.1080/03632415.2016.1119600
Subject(s) - causation , correlative , causality (physics) , adaptive management , scale (ratio) , ecosystem , environmental resource management , ecology , fishery , biology , economics , geography , political science , cartography , philosophy , physics , quantum mechanics , linguistics , law
Efforts to understand how to manage aquatic ecosystems often rely on correlations between human actions and impacts in the ecosystem. We are often warned that correlation does not imply causation and that the gold standard for identifying cause and effect relationships is manipulative experiments. History shows us that correlations are often not causal and that managers should not design policies based on the assumption of causality. However, in the absence of manipulation, correlative evidence may be all that is available. Correlative evidence is strongest when (1) correlation is high, (2) it is found consistently across multiple situations, (3) there are not competing explanations, and (4) the correlation is consistent with mechanistic explanations that can be supported by experimental evidence. Where possible, manipulative experiments and formal adaptive management should be employed, but in large‐scale aquatic ecosystems these opportunities are limited. More commonly, we should emphasize identifying the range of possible causal mechanisms and identify policies that are robust to the alternative mechanisms.