State‐Dependent Migration Timing and Use of Multiple Habitat Types in Anadromous Salmonids

Anadromous salmonids vary considerably in their age at ocean entry, their timing of ocean entry within a year, and the extent to which they use multiple habitat types within freshwater. To better understand habitat use and movement timing, we developed a broadly applicable model of state‐dependent movements among multiple habitats, which was parameterized based on a case study of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in a California coastal watershed with a seasonally closed lagoonal estuary. The model correctly predicted population‐level patterns, including predominance of anadromy and a dominant smolt age of 2 years. In addition, the new model predicted the occurrence of small, lagoon‐rearing fish (displaying smoltlike migratory behavior) that returned upstream and did not enter the ocean until the next year, whereas large fish emigrated from the lagoon into the ocean. The new model predicted all‐or‐nothing habitat use for fish of a given size, but we observed a mix of strategies for fish of the same size. Our modeling suggests that a mortality–growth rate tradeoff can explain much of the life history variation, but this tradeoff alone cannot drive a mixture of habitat use strategies by fish of a similar state (i.e., length). We predicted that a mixed strategy may develop as a consequence of density‐dependent reduction in growth rates, arising as more individuals recruit to the originally preferable habitat. Higher risk in the higher‐growth habitat may halt recruitment to the high‐growth habitat even before growth rates are equalized. Uncertainty in rewards associated with the higher‐growth habitat may also favor a mixed strategy in which only some fish accept the higher risk associated with increased growth opportunity. This model framework can be used to predict movement timing and use of multiple habitats for other salmonids and in other systems.