Open AccessOn getting it right by being wrong: A case study of how flawed research may become self-fulfilling at last
Author(s) -
Hanjo Hamann
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2122274119
Subject(s) - hindsight bias , covid-19 , falling (accident) , set (abstract data type) , psychology , pandemic , field (mathematics) , positive economics , epistemology , cognitive psychology , philosophy , computer science , medicine , economics , psychiatry , mathematics , disease , pathology , virology , outbreak , pure mathematics , programming language , infectious disease (medical specialty)
Significance Understanding how humans process time series data is more pressing now than ever amid a progressing pandemic. Current research draws on some fifty years of empirical evidence on laypeople’s (in-)ability to extrapolate exponential growth. Yet even canonized evidence ought not to be trusted blindly. As a case in point, I review a seminal study that is still highly (even increasingly) cited, although seriously flawed. This case serves as both a reminder of how readily even experienced, well-meaning researchers underestimate exponential dynamics, and an admonition for subsequent researchers to critically read and evaluate the research they cite in order to catch and correct errors quickly rather than carry them forward over decades.