Open AccessWhy marginal CO2emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy
Author(s) -
Stephen P. Holland,
Matthew J. Kotchen,
Erin T. Mansur,
Andrew J. Yates
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2116632119
Subject(s) - electricity , marginal cost , greenhouse gas , climate change , natural resource economics , economics , offset (computer science) , electricity generation , marginal abatement cost , environmental science , coal , electricity demand , microeconomics , engineering , ecology , programming language , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , computer science , electrical engineering , biology , waste management
Significance Marginal emissions of CO2 from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating many climate policies. We provide estimates of marginal CO2 emissions for electricity use in the United States that vary by region, hour of day, and year to year. Despite a decrease in average emissions over the last decade, marginal emissions have increased. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration’s target of having electric vehicles make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector far more substantial than those over the last decade, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles.