Warming winters in lakes: Later ice onset promotes consumer overwintering and shapes springtime planktonic food webs

Global climate warming is causing the loss of freshwater ice around the Northern Hemisphere. Although the timing and duration of ice covers are known to regulate ecological processes in seasonally ice-covered ecosystems, the consequences of shortening winters for freshwater biota are poorly understood owing to the scarcity of under-ice research. Here, we present one of the first in-lake experiments to postpone ice-cover onset (by ≤21 d), thereby extending light availability (by ≤40 d) in early winter, and explicitly demonstrate cascading effects on pelagic food web processes and phenologies. Delaying ice-on elicited a sequence of events from winter to spring: 1) relatively greater densities of algal resources and primary consumers in early winter; 2) an enhanced prevalence of winter-active (overwintering) consumers throughout the ice-covered period, associated with augmented storage of high-quality fats likely due to a longer access to algal resources in early winter; and 3) an altered trophic structure after ice-off, with greater initial springtime densities of overwintering consumers driving stronger, earlier top-down regulation, effectively reducing the spring algal bloom. Increasingly later ice onset may thus promote consumer overwintering, which can confer a competitive advantage on taxa capable of surviving winters upon ice-off; a process that may diminish spring food availability for other consumers, potentially disrupting trophic linkages and energy flow pathways over the subsequent open-water season. In considering a future with warmer winters, these results provide empirical evidence that may help anticipate phenological responses to freshwater ice loss and, more broadly, constitute a case of climate-induced cross-seasonal cascade on realized food web processes.