Open AccessIn vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness
Author(s) -
Ruian Ke,
Carolin Zitzmann,
David D. Ho,
Ruy M. Ribeiro,
Alan S. Perelson
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2111477118
Subject(s) - transmission (telecommunications) , viral load , covid-19 , virology , immunology , biology , basic reproduction number , medicine , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , computer science , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , environmental health , telecommunications
Significance Quantifying the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and individual infectiousness is important for understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Here, we developed within-host models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and by fitting them to clinical data, we estimated key within-host viral dynamic parameters. We also developed a mechanistic model for viral transmission and show that the logarithm of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract serves as an appropriate surrogate for a person’s infectiousness. Using data on how viral load changes during infection, we further evaluated the effectiveness of PCR and antigen-based testing strategies for averting transmission and identifying infected individuals.