Carbon emissions reductions from Indonesia’s moratorium on forest concessions are cost-effective yet contribute little to Paris pledges

Significance More than a decade after the global adoption of REDD+ as a climate change mitigation strategy, countries have started accessing results-based payments. However, the extent to which payments are actually based on results is unknown, necessitating program evaluations to establish the contribution of REDD+ to the Paris NDCs. We undertake a microeconometric evaluation of one of the most globally significant REDD+ initiatives, Indonesia’s moratorium on forest concessions, in which a payment has been awarded. At the agreed US$5/tCO2 -eq, the value of our estimated cumulative carbon emissions far exceeds the proposed payment from the donor, Norway. Although cost-effective, the emissions reductions only contribute 3 to 4% of Indonesia’s NDC. This contribution could be increased in new initiatives with better-designed incentives and institutional arrangements.