Open AccessThe duration of travel impacts the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases
Author(s) -
J Giles,
Elisabeth zu Erbach-Schoenberg,
Andrew J. Tatem,
Lauren Gardner,
Ottar N. Bjørnstad,
C. Jessica E. Metcalf,
Amy Wesolowski
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.1922663117
Subject(s) - duration (music) , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , geography , proxy (statistics) , population size , biology , demography , disease , environmental health , medicine , statistics , mathematics , art , literature , sociology , pathology
Significance The spatial dynamics of infectious-disease spread are driven by the biology of the pathogen and the connectivity patterns among human populations. Models of disease spread often use mobile-phone calling records to calculate the number of trips made among locations in the population, which is used as a proxy for population connectivity. However, the amount of time people spend in a destination (trip duration) also impacts the probability of onward disease transmission among locations. Here, we developed models that incorporate trip duration into the mechanism of disease spread, which helps us understand how fast and how far a pathogen might spread in a human population.