Assessing multidimensional sustainability: Lessons from Brazil’s social protection programs

Significance Meeting SDGs requires assessing trade-offs and synergies across divergent goals and robust policy impact evaluation. Using quasi-experimental inference methods, we assess impacts of Brazil’s Zero Hunger (ZH) social protection programs. ZH investment increased per capita calorie and protein productions. Social impacts (multidimensional poverty, child malnutrition, and infant mortality) were more limited, and the direction of change in natural vegetation cover was biome specific. Conditional cash transfer (BF) generated fewer benefits and more trade-offs than agricultural support (PRONAF). Results inform policy development, including roll out of ZH inspired programs in sub-Saharan Africa. We highlight successful elements of social protection programs, synergies, and trade-offs between multiple SDGs including environmental protection.