Open AccessAnalysis of the impacts of wind power forecast error on power system operation
Author(s) -
Jiang Yamin,
Preece Robin
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
the journal of engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2051-3305
DOI - 10.1049/joe.2018.9363
Subject(s) - wind power , electric power system , renewable energy , probabilistic logic , reliability engineering , computer science , wind power forecasting , reliability (semiconductor) , power flow , forecast error , wind speed , power system simulation , environmental science , meteorology , power (physics) , econometrics , engineering , electrical engineering , economics , physics , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence
With increasing penetration of renewable energy resources, the uncertain nature of these intermittent resources can introduce power dispatch problems resulting in serious risks to power system operational performance and reliability. Wind generation forecasts are crucial for power system scheduling and operation. In this study, a probabilistic method is proposed to assess the effects that wind generation forecast errors have on the dispatched power flow following short‐term wind generation forecasts. Case studies have been conducted using a 29‐bus reduced order model of the Great Britain power system under different scenarios. It is shown that the translation of wind plant forecast errors to errors in dispatched wind forecasts is non‐linear at high penetration levels.