Open AccessProbabilistic analysis of payback period for AC–DC transmission and distribution asset expansion projects
Author(s) -
Bin Li,
Shahzad Muhammad,
Bing Qi,
Shoukat Muhammad U.,
Fahal Nabeel A.M.,
Simiyu Patrobers,
Islam Rabiul
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
the journal of engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2051-3305
DOI - 10.1049/joe.2018.8383
Subject(s) - payback period , asset (computer security) , probabilistic logic , transmission (telecommunications) , econometrics , distribution (mathematics) , statistics , computer science , reliability engineering , mathematics , economics , engineering , telecommunications , microeconomics , mathematical analysis , computer security , production (economics)
In this study, a new concept of statistical distribution of payback period is calculated for AC–DC transmission and distribution asset expansion projects. For calculation of the payback period, uncertainty is considered with cost and benefit. The Gaussian distribution is considered for correlated input cost and benefit variates. For more examination point of view, the distribution of the payback period is calculated with different correlation coefficients between cost and benefit. The main advantage of this study is to draw the probability distribution function of the payback period in terms of cost and benefit because most of the industrialist are often interested in cost and benefit analysis of AC–DC transmission and distribution asset expansion projects. An example is considered for evaluation of the proposed model.