Evaluation of solar irradiance on inclined surfaces models in the short‐term photovoltaic power forecasting

Accurately forecasting photovoltaic (PV) power is a prerequisite for dispatching of power systems, which is also crucial to grid stability. In this study, an evaluation of different solar irradiance on inclined surfaces models in the short‐term PV power forecasting was reported. First, combinations of decomposition and transposition models were used to estimate PV array irradiance from measured global horizontal irradiance. Then a short‐term PV forecasting model was proposed according to the performance of PV array and inverter, and irradiance on inclined surfaces was applied to the model to obtain the final forecasts. Finally, numerous measured power data from a variety of climates were used to evaluate the forecasting results of five weather types (sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day, fog and haze day). Results suggest that different models lead to different results under the same weather type, and the forecasting accuracy strongly depends on the weather types.