Open AccessCross‐correlation of output fluctuation and system‐balancing cost in photovoltaic integration
Author(s) -
Ikeda Yuichi,
Ogimoto Kazuhiko
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
the journal of engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2051-3305
DOI - 10.1049/joe.2014.0235
Subject(s) - photovoltaic system , schedule , renewable energy , principal component analysis , forecast error , production (economics) , econometrics , computer science , mathematics , mathematical optimization , statistics , economics , engineering , electrical engineering , macroeconomics , operating system
The authors analysed the cross‐correlation of photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross‐correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross‐correlations. Then the operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using the proposed unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The system‐balancing cost of PV system was also estimated with or without demand response. Finally, validity of the concept of ‘local production for local consumption of renewable energy’ and alternative policy implications were discussed.