Will the vehicle restriction policy maintain a long‐term deterrent effect?

As one of the efficient travel demand management approaches, vehicle restriction policy has been widely implemented worldwide. However, non‐compliant behaviours occur and undermine such a policy. Maintaining a long‐term deterrent effect on individuals is crucial. This study conducts an empirical analysis to investigate whether the vehicle restriction policy can prevent non‐compliant behaviours in the long run. On the basis of a newly implemented vehicle restriction policy, i.e. odd‐and‐even policy in Langfang, China, compliance duration that represents the period from the beginning of the policy to the first rule‐breaking behaviour of an individual is investigated by applying survival analyses. Moreover, this study proves the existence of inertia in rule‐breaking behaviour. Findings reveal that a considerable proportion of vehicles would commit their first offence within a short period of time after the policy coming into force. Inertia would further increase the frequency of rule‐breaking behaviour. Thus, vehicle restriction policy can hardly maintain a long‐term deterrent effect. This study provides implications for understanding the deterrent effect of transportation policies and offers insights into policy improvement.