Open AccessTheoretical interruption model for reliability assessment of power supply systems
Author(s) -
Ilie IrinelSorin,
HernandoGil Ignacio,
Djokic Sasa Z.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
iet generation, transmission and distribution
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.92
H-Index - 110
eISSN - 1751-8695
pISSN - 1751-8687
DOI - 10.1049/iet-gtd.2013.0339
Subject(s) - reliability (semiconductor) , moment (physics) , reliability engineering , monte carlo method , mains electricity , computer science , power (physics) , electricity , process (computing) , probability distribution , representation (politics) , electric power system , similarity (geometry) , probability model , point (geometry) , mathematical optimization , statistics , engineering , mathematics , physics , geometry , electrical engineering , classical mechanics , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence , politics , law , political science , image (mathematics) , operating system
This study introduces a new theoretical interruption model for assessing more accurately the moment in time when interruptions of electricity customers are likely to occur. Recordings of short and long interruptions from two power supply systems are analysed and the similarity between their patterns is identified and then used to introduce a general interruption probability distribution model, defined in stages as multi‐zone theoretical curves. The effectiveness of the proposed theoretical interruption model is firstly verified for a basic test system supplying an aggregate load point whose power profiles (residential, commercial, industrial and mixed load) are engaged in assessing the energy not supplied, and afterwards for a typical UK power supply system consisting of about 15 000 electricity customers. The results show that a correct representation of the moment of interruption performed with the proposed model leads to completely different results than those obtained based on the conventional assumption that the time when interruption occurs is given by a known probability distribution. Moreover, comparisons against reported figures of reliability indices determine the most suitable probability distribution that shall be used to model the initial conditions of the Monte Carlo simulation and accompany the proposed theoretical model throughout the simulation process.