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Peripheral Blood Markers of Inflammation Predict Mortality and Functional Decline in High‐Functioning Community‐Dwelling Older Persons
Author(s) -
Reuben David B.,
Cheh Anna I.,
Harris Tamara B.,
Ferrucci Luigi,
Rowe John W.,
Tracy Russell P.,
Seeman Teresa E.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of the american geriatrics society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.992
H-Index - 232
eISSN - 1532-5415
pISSN - 0002-8614
DOI - 10.1046/j.1532-5415.2002.50157.x
Subject(s) - medicine , c reactive protein , odds ratio , inflammation , cohort , gastroenterology , immunology
OBJECTIVES: Several peripheral blood markers of inflammation have demonstrated prognostic ability, but the value of combining multiple markers as a measure of inflammatory burden remains unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of combining four peripheral blood measures of inflammation in healthy older persons. DESIGN: Inception cohort study with 7 years of follow‐up. SETTING: Three communities. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred seventy high‐functioning subjects aged 70 to 79 who had serum albumin, cholesterol, interleukin (IL)‐6, and C‐reactive protein (CRP) levels measured at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: Three‐ and 7‐year mortality and Rosow‐ Breslau functional decline. RESULTS: A summary score was created that assigned one point each for the following blood levels: albumin <3.8 g/dL, cholesterol <170 mg/dL (bottom decile), IL‐6>3.8 pg/mL (top tertile), and CRP>2.65 mg/L (top tertile). By 3 years, 6% of subjects had died, and, by 7 years, 23% had died. In subjects with three or four markers of inflammation, the adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for 3‐ and 7‐year mortality were 6.6 and 3.2, respectively, compared with those who had no abnormal markers. Subjects with one or two markers were at more moderate and statistically insignificant increased risk of 3‐ and 7‐year mortality with AORs of 1.5 and 1.3, respectively. The risks for functional decline at 3‐ and 7‐years were generally small (AOR = 1.1–1.9) and not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In high‐functioning older persons, a measure of inflammation can identify those at a much higher risk of mortality and a possibly higher risk of functional decline. Whether therapies directed at reducing inflammation can attenuate such risk remains to be determined.