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Risk Analysis of Hunting of Seal Populations in the Baltic
Author(s) -
Kokko Hanna,
Lindström Jan,
Ranta Esa
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
conservation biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.2
H-Index - 222
eISSN - 1523-1739
pISSN - 0888-8892
DOI - 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.96078.x
Subject(s) - phoca , population , seal (emblem) , geography , baltic sea , fishery , population growth , population size , sustainability , population model , vital rates , ecology , population decline , biology , demography , oceanography , archaeology , sociology , geology
Vulnerabilities of grey seal ( Halichoerus grypus) and ringed seal ( Phoca hispida) populations in the Baltic Sea were evaluated for potential opening of the populations for hunting. We used ecological risk analysis to assess the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticity and uncertain and partly missing population data on the modeled outcomes. The impact of different harvesting strategies on the long‐term sustainability of seal populations was analyzed with four different models with increasing complexity and population detail. It appears the simpler the population model used, the more overconfident results it gave with regard to the hunting policy to be adopted. Therefore, it proves risky in population management decisions to rely on simplistic calculations based on growth rate and estimated population size alone. This is even more so if the population estimates have a wide error margin. Due to an unknown, but presumably positive number of seal kills in the Baltic at present, the sustainable harvest is likely to be close to zero for both seal species. Our risk analysis strongly suggests refraining from Baltic seal hunting now, with their current population sizes, and in the future if the development of population numbers cannot be assessed accurately enough.