Premium
Análisis de la viabilidad de poblaciones del elefante afiricano ( Loxodonta africana ): ¿Cuán grande deben ser las reservas?
Author(s) -
Armbruster Peter,
Lande Russell
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
conservation biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.2
H-Index - 222
eISSN - 1523-1739
pISSN - 0888-8892
DOI - 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1993.07030602.x
Subject(s) - african elephant , culling , national park , geography , arid , population , population viability analysis , survivorship curve , juvenile , ecology , population growth , population density , reproduction , demography , biology , endangered species , herd , sociology
We present an age‐structured, density‐dependent model of elephant population dynamics in a fluctuating environment, drawing primarily upon the life history parameters obtained from studies in semi‐arid land at Tsavo National Park, Kenya. Density regulation occurs by changes in the age of first reproduction and calving interval. We model environmental stochasticity with drought events affecting sex‐ and age‐specific survivorships. Results indicate a maximum population growth rate of 3% per year and an equilibrium elephant density of 3.1/mile 2 . Analysis of the demographic results and their sensitivity to changes in juvenile survivorship and drought frequencies, supported by genetic considerations, suggests that in semi‐arid regions a minimum reserve size of 1000 mile 2 is necessary to attain a 99% probability of population persistence for 1000 years. The effect of age‐independent culling on population viability is also analyzed.