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Bedside estimation of Down syndrome risk during first‐trimester ultrasound screening
Author(s) -
Herman A.,
Dreazen E.,
Herman A. M.,
Batukan C. E. M.,
Holzgreve W.,
Tercanli S.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
ultrasound in obstetrics and gynecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.202
H-Index - 141
eISSN - 1469-0705
pISSN - 0960-7692
DOI - 10.1046/j.1469-0705.2002.00835.x
Subject(s) - medicine , standard deviation , crown rump length , statistics , down syndrome , ultrasound , nuchal translucency measurement , obstetrics and gynaecology , first trimester , obstetrics , pregnancy , mathematics , fetus , radiology , psychiatry , biology , genetics
Objective To construct tables for ‘bedside’ estimation of Down syndrome risk based on maternal age and nuchal translucency measurements. Methods Likelihood ratios were calculated using the log multiple of median Gaussian model. The parameters for the model (mean and standard deviation) were derived from 5560 normal and 51 Down syndrome‐affected pregnancies scanned during the first trimester in three different centers. Equations for calculating maternal background risk and median values were obtained from previous reports. The results were compared to two modalities using the log Gaussian model and software that uses the delta‐value model. Results The distribution fitted the data well, and the parameters obtained in the study group for the log multiple of median model were a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 0.12356 among normal pregnancies and a mean of 0.305312 and a standard deviation of 0.240337 among Down syndrome‐affected ones. The likelihood ratios obtained for the various combinations of fetal crown–rump lengths and nuchal translucency measurements were comparable to other modalities reported earlier. Conclusions The results of the current study provide useful tables for simple and accurate ‘bedside’ estimation of Down syndrome risk without the need for computerized software or complicated calculations. Copyright © 2002 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology